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Japan macro-strategy:The outlook for the Yen,appreciation

来源:http://www.bjbsfz.com 作者:理财保险 人气:147 发布时间:2019-11-30
摘要:    2) Do not hedge their Yen equities exposures     4) Rotate out of ‘Cyclical value’ into stocks with high ROEs (page2)     The two key drivers of our non-consensus US$/¥ view, in our opinion,are ourforecasts for: weak labo

    2) Do not hedge their Yen equities exposures

    4) Rotate out of ‘Cyclical value’ into stocks with high ROEs (page 2)

    The two key drivers of our non-consensus US$/¥ view, in our opinion, are ourforecasts for: weak labour force growth in the leading economies and financialrepression for decades as governments struggle to pay for rising entitlementspending. We forecast moderate trend growth and low real and nominal bondyields globally. As a result, we recommend investors:

A non-consensus call: we forecast a mild trend appreciation of the Yen. Anhistorically cheap currency with a substantial current account surplus, we expectthe private sector to struggle to willingly recycle the surplus in a world of narrownominal and real interest rate spreads. The consensus is forecasting a mildtrend depreciation (top table below, footnote).

    1) Go long the Yen

    3) Expect negative TOPIX EPS revisions to continue (page 2)

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